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Who Will Win?

St. Mary’s College Professors Predict Election Results
October 26, 2010
Press Release #10-209

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The Political Science Department faculty at St. Mary’s College of Maryland have issued their predictions for the 2010 elections. All but one predict Republicans will reclaim the House of Representatives. Most see Republican gains in the range of 40 seats in the House. On the Senate side, only one predicts a Republican takeover. Republicans would need to win a net of 10 seats to reclaim the Senate. Most predict gains of seven-eight seats, with two predicting a gain of nine seats resulting in a tied Senate. (Vice President Biden would be the tie-breaking vote).

All predictions point to substantial gains for Republican governors, a significant finding given that many of these governors will oversee Congressional redistricting.

In Maryland, all see Governor Martin O'Malley winning re-election over his Republican rival Bob Ehrlich, though by varying margins of two to seven percentage points. If you would like to get further comments from faculty before or after the election, please contact Sahar Shafqat, (c-301-655-0245), or Barbara Geehan, 240-895-3073.

Fevzi Bilgin, assistant professor: Senate: 53 Democrats (w/ 2 Inds) / 47 Republicans (R+7). House: 213 Democrats / 222 Republicans (R+4). Governors: 20 Democrats / 30 Republicans. Maryland Governor: O’Malley 53.5 % / Ehrlich 46.5 %. What is the impact, Bilgin asks? “A dysfunctional Congress for the next two years, presidential candidates emerge for both the Tea Party and the Republican Party. Then, Obama gets re-elected due to schism in the Right.

Klara Bilgin, visiting assistant professor: Senate: 51 Democrats (w/ 2 Inds) / 49 Republicans. House: 205 Democrats / 230 Republicans. Governors: 17 Democrats / 33 Republicans. Maryland Governor: O’Malley 50.5% / Ehrlich 48%.

Diana Boros, visiting assistant professor: Senate: 51 Democrats (w/ 2 Inds) / 49 Republicans (R = +8). House: 210 Democrats / 225 Republicans (R = +47). Governors: 20 Democrats / 30 Republicans. Maryland Governor: O’Malley 51% / Ehrlich 49%.

Todd Eberly, assistant professor and interim director of the Center for the Study of Democracy: Senate: 50 Republicans / 50 Democrats (then expect “news” from Joe Lieberman and/or Ben Nelson) (R+9). House: 233 Republicans / 202 Democrats (R+55). Governors: 30 Republicans / 20 Democrats. Maryland Governor: O’Malley 52% / Ehrlich 47%.

Matt Fehrs, assistant professor: Senate: 51 Democrats (w/ 2 Inds) / 49 Republicans (R = +8). House: 210 Democrats / 225 Republicans (R = +47). Governors: 20 Democrats / 30 Republicans. Maryland Governor: O'Malley 51% / Ehrlich - 44%.

Susan Grogan, professor: Senate : 51 Democrats (w/ 2 Inds) / 49 Republicans. House: 220 Democrats, 215 Republicans. Governors: 21 Democrats /29 Republicans. Maryland Governor: O’Malley 52% / Ehrlich 47%.

Walter Hill, associate professor: Senate: 47 Republicans / 53 Democrats (w/ 2 Inds). House: 227 Republicans / 208 Democrats. Maryland Governor: O’Malley wins.

Sahar Shafqat, associate professor and department chair: Senate: 50 Democrats / 50 Republicans . House: 222 Republicans / 213 Democrats. Governors: 30 Republicans / 20 Democrats. Maryland Governor: O'Malley 52% / Ehrlich 48%.