With only two months remaining, registered Maryland voters
eligible to vote in the June 24 primary are clearly undecided about who should
govern the state. More than two-thirds
of Maryland Republican voters are undecided. Asked who they would vote for if the
primaries were held today, 16% of registered Republicans clearly favor Larry
Hogan. David Craig is Hogan’s strongest challenger, but trails in single digits
at 7.8%. Niether Charles Lollar nor
Ronald George is a credible candidate, with less than 4% each at this late
stage in the race.
The Maryland Poll
This information was gathered through the Maryland Poll
(MPoll), a research and teaching project of St. Mary’s Professor of Political
Science Susan Grogan. Grogan’s sophomore-level American Politics class assisted
with the design and analysis of the poll. The MPoll, said Grogan, seeks to make
public opinion available to citizens and lawmakers in the state as a public
service and to enrich the education of students by practice and engagement in
the political process.
- A slight majority (54%) of Democrats also are
undecided about who they would vote for as Maryland governor if the primaries
were held today. Anthony Brown is the
clear leader amongst polled Democrats with 27%, followed by Douglas Gansler at
11%. Heather Mizeur trails with 8%.
- With more than two years remaining before the
2016 presidential election, rather than asking for whom registered voters
intend to vote, we asked them which Democrat and which Republican has the best
chance of winning. Former Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton continues to dominate the Democratic field of candidates
with two-thirds of all registered voters believing Clinton is the Democrat who
has the best chance of winning the election. Elizabeth Warren at 11% polled
slightly ahead of Vice President Joe Biden with 10%. Governors Martin O’Malley and Andrew Cuomo
both polled at 6%.
- On the Republican side, Jeb Bush (34%) and Chris
Christie (32%) are in a dead heat at the starting-line of the presidential
marathon, each with one-third of registered Maryland voters thinking they have
the best chance to win the election. Rand Paul at 19% and Mike Huckabee at 15%
split the remainder.
- More respondents favor (35%) than oppose (31%)
the current three-year Maryland moratorium on fracking set to expire this
August, with a large sector (34%) expressing no opinion.
- On the other hand, more respondents favor
approving than not (39% to 30%) Dominion Resources’ proposal to build a liquid
natural gas export terminal at its import facility at Cove Point, on the
Chesapeake Bay in Southern Maryland’s Calvert County.
- More feel that the environmental health of
Maryland and the Chesapeake Bay is improving (28%) or staying about the same
(47%) than getting worse (20%).
- Nevertheless, most think global temperatures
have increased (46%) during the past century.
A third believe that temperatures have stayed about the same (33%) with
the remainder split between being unsure (15%) or stating that global
temperatures have decreased (6%).
- Respondents are equally divided by thirds over
whether or not their U.S. Congressional representative is doing a good (34%) or
bad job (33%) , one-third being uncertain (33%).
- On the other hand, respondents are more negative
and certain about whether Maryland is on the right track (41%) or headed in the
wrong direction (46%), with few (13%) being uncertain.
- Fifty percent of Marylanders support
decriminalizing possession of small amounts of marijuana, with 35% opposed.
More Marylanders think the control of gun ownership (44%) is more important the
right to own guns (33%), with 22% stating that both sides are equally
- A clear majority (60%) of respondents believe
Maryland should focus equally on education and jobs and the economy. Nearly a third, 31%, feel the focus should
be on jobs and the economy. Only 9% feel
that education should be the primary focus.
- A majority of Marylanders (51%) say that the
Affordable Care Act (ACA) has had no effect on themselves or their families so
far. Slightly more say that the ACA has
hurt (26%) than those who believe it has helped (21%) their families.
- We asked Maryland voters whether or not they
agree with this statement: “Minority
groups need affirmative action to achieve greater success in the job market,”
asking whether they strongly agree, agree, disagree, strongly disagree, or have
no opinion. We found that opinions of
the need for affirmative action are flatly distributed within the poll’s margin
of error. Slightly more strongly agreed
(24%) than strongly disagreed (20%) with those agreeing and disagreeing sitting
squarely midway between the extremes at near 22% each. Only 12%expressed no opinion.
- Nearly two-thirds (65%) of respondents favor
Maryland’s new minimum wage increase.
Responses to both the affirmative action and minimum wage questions
varied widely by race, region, and age.
MPoll’s surveys are conducted with an Interactive Voice
Response (IVR) system, straticsnetworks.com, dialing a random sample of phone
numbers procured from Aristotle Inc.
Only landline numbers were called.
Andrew Keiper, digital media specialist, recorded the students asking
questions. Every respondent hears the
same voice and wording, eliminating interviewer bias. Respondents enter choices directly by
pressing numbers on their phones, reducing data entry errors.
This poll of 954 Maryland registered voters was conducted
April 10-13, 2014. The responses were
weighted for race, age, gender, and Maryland region to reflect 2010/11 U.S.
Census data. The poll’s margin of error
is 3.17%. Cross-tabs of results will be published on MPoll’s website: http://www.mpoll.org/. Essays on this poll, polls in general, and
polling will be available on MPoll’s new blog Insights at
For More Information:
For more information about the MPoll and/or for print quality files of graph image files, contact Professor Susan Grogan at email@example.com or (240) 895-4205.