Who Will Win? St. Mary's College of Maryland Experts Weigh In On 2012 Elections!

November 1, 2012—The 2012 elections will be tight according to faculty of the political science department at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, who are issuing their predictions for Nov. 6.

Regardless of whom they predict to win the presidency, faculty members project a narrower margin of victory for the winner than in the 2008 election. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands and the Senate will remain in Democratic hands, but narrowly, they predict. One faculty member foresees a 50-50 split in the Senate, in which case the vice president would deliver the tie-breaking vote.

See individual predictions and comments from faculty below. If you would like to get further comments from the political science department faculty before or after the elections, please contact Sahar Shafqat (c-301-655-0245) or Arminta Stanfield at 240-895-3073.

Diana Boros, assistant professor
President:  Obama 288, Romney 250 (electoral votes)
Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
House: Republican majority

Michael Cain, professor
President: Obama 277, Romney 261
Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47
House: Republicans 238, Democrats 197

Todd Eberly, assistant professor: “Prepare to relive Florida 2000, just not in Florida.” (Eberly provides further insight into his predictions on his blog, “The Free Stater.")
President: Romney 279, Obama 259
Senate: Republicans 50, Democrats 50
House: Republicans 234, Democrats 201

Matt Fehrs, assistant professor
President: Obama 281, Romney 257
Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
House: Republican majority

Susan Grogan, professor
President: Obama 323, Romney 215
Senate: Democrats 52, Republican 48
House: Republican majority

Walter Hill, professor: “I would not be surprised if Romney wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College, but given the performance in the third debate, I now put Obama at 50.5% of the two party vote.”
President: Obama 303, Romney 235
Senate: Democratic majority
House: Republicans 230, Democrats 205

Kate Martin, visiting assistant professor
President: Obama 290, Romney 248
Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
House: Republican majority

Shan Sappleton, visiting assistant professor
President: Obama 290, Romney 248
Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47
House: Republican majority

Sahar Shafqat, associate professor and chair: “This election will come down to Ohio, much as the 2004 election did.”
President: Romney 270, Barack Obama 268
Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
House: Republican majority